How Artificial Intelligence Shapes Science: Evidence from AlphaFold

Summary

Clean quasi-experimental economics of a frontier AI model in science: after AlphaFold2's July 2021 release the rate of experimental structure determination barely moves, but basic research on previously unstudied proteins rises 15-40% relative to proteins that already had structural data, i.e. AI redirects attention rather than raising raw output. No detectable spillover yet into early-stage drug development. The best-identified counterpoint to the 'AI raises productivity' narrative and a direct empirical companion to the Nature narrowing-of-focus result.

Contribution

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Method

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Relevance to RISE

Surfaced by the 2026-08-29 literature sweep as a high-priority candidate for the RISE knowledge base (angle: research productivity of AI). Verified against: NBER paper page opened 2026-08-29 (title, 2 authors, WP 35143, April 2026, abstract read)

Critique / open questions

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Key quotes

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